Grand Finale! Indo-US N-Deal!

When the going gets tough, the tough get going! This is one of my favourite quotes which I believe to the core and implement it too. Not wasting any more time, I shall come down to this intriguing topic.

The Indian N-deal is still a mystery as I draft this. Half way around the world, there are decision makers who are still divided on the issue of giving a free thorough fare to India on this issue. Back to where we are (India of course!), New Delhi must be seriously preparing for the Budget tomorrow. But, in the wake of President Bush’s (the most powerful man in the world) impending visit a few day’s later, there is a shift in focus.

This can also be attributed to the mundane budget that would be presented tomorrow with emphasis on Infrastructure, agriculture and certain discussions on FBT and personal tax (I am keeping my fingers crossed). The Finance Minister shouldn’t be too harsh on the excise duties too. These would be brought down to the global average of 8% from the current 15%. But, then again this should happen over a period of time. Will electronic goods also be exempt is something to be seen (Again fingers crossed, waiting to buy myself a computer!!!).

Coming to the Million Dollar Question, Will India snatch the nuclear deal in the coming months? My views are as follows

1. Dr. Singh gave way to our strategists, scientists and also experts’ thoughts on NPT and the separation plan. Positive!


2. Burn’s states that the deal is 90% complete and would require further ratification (what does he mean by this?). Positive!


3. Bush is keen on getting into a Strategic partnership with India. The reason being, weakening of Japan and strengthening of China. Positive!


4. Bush’s backyard (the USA), the Non-proliferation experts are having a field day and are forming a coalition to educate the congress about the negatives of the deal. Negative!


5. US desperately wants the Fast Breeder programme to be on the list. And India will not oblige. Negative!


6. US unsure of how only 60% of the facilities having safeguards puts breaks on India’s weapons programme. Negative!


7. US actively looking at alternatives to Nuclear power which right now make-up only 2-3% of the total power produced. Neutral!


8. US congress keen on making India sign an agreement for non-proliferation. This may curb the weapon’s programme if need be. Negative!


9. Bush ready to make changes to the law for India if it accepts the dictum. India ready for cooperation and not open for the imperialist taunts of the US. Negative!

Thus, going by the above, it is unlikely that we would grab something from Bush! So, it remains to be seen how far will Bush go to grab this initiative which would strengthen its presence in South Asia.

My say, there would be big ticket announcements on agriculture, trade, Outsourcing (H1B Visas etc). If we are unable to grab something during this visit, then we might have to settle for other sources of power like wind, clean coal etc.